The Patriots game showed more than anything that Belichick is still Belichick. While Miami still won the game, it was not in the same fashion as the rest of their wins this year. Tua was constantly forced to hold onto and wait later in the progression to throw the ball, all while the outside run was completely taken away. With all that said, this team still scored 31 points and it’s becoming clear that this defense is improving every single week, especially with the return of Jalen Ramsey, who nearly accounted for 14 points himself.
NE learnings
I was having a conversation on Monday before the film was available talking about how teams could cover Tyreek Hill, specifically because back-to-back weeks teams have tried to bracket him resulting in a TD. The problem is normally you’d press a WR like that off the line, but with the motion the Dolphins use, that actually puts the DBs at a disadvantage. So, teams have started trying to back off and double him with bracket coverage, however, there is a flaw in that idea as well. The effectiveness of the run game and the frequency the Dolphins use play action. This has held the safety in the bracket in back-to-back weeks now allowing for Reek to easily split the DBs for a TD. After giving it, some thought I found only one reasonable conclusion, the defense needs to take its slot corner and have him follow Tyreek every single play and press him no matter what. This player, shouldn’t necessarily be manned up to Hill, he just needs to press him and then return to his other responsibility. This will make it hard to blitz, it will have this defender late to his coverage assignment but it will be the most effective way to not give up big plays and disrupt timing. So, I had this thought and thought for a second, I did it I actually figured out the Tyreek Hill defense. Then later this week I started watching the tape, only to find out that is exactly what Belichick had his defense doing. That’s what disrupted the timing and had this offense looking as off as it did. The touchdown came on one of the plays this wasn’t done on defense, which is probably why the play was called on offense. While this adjustment didn’t remove Reek from the game it did do a good job of disrupting the flow of offense and is something I expect more teams to do moving forward and thus is something that needs to be accounted for.
Quickly taking a look at the run game, it was immediately clear that we were hurting due to injury which is natural when your top four linemen are hurt. One thing that was interesting though is how often the Patriots got a linebacker aligned over a WR on running downs to make for a blocking mismatch on the outside. Often times in this game the edge collapsed due to this mismatch, this isn’t something that isn’t accounted for in this offense however, frequently you’ll see Miami WRs not blocking the player lined up in front of them and going straight to the second level. A pulling player will hit the closer targets to the line of scrimmage to create a better push and regain that matchup advantage.
Reviewing KC’s tape
To look at the Chiefs film I wanted to focus on a game with a clear number one wide receiver, to see how they might try and contain Tyreek Hill. Luckily for me, they played the Vikings when Justin Jefferson was still healthy. What stood out immediately was just how well and frequently Kansas City disguised their coverage. While most teams try and do this, I haven’t seen one execute it so well, nearly every play (very close to the snap) the entire shown coverage shell changed and sometimes even the new shell shown is still a bluff. To give it a comparison, Steve Spagnuolo’s defense functions VERY similarly to Miami’s offense pre-snap. In order to do this, the defense didn’t put that much extra focus into dealing with Jefferson in the Vikings game. I expect we may see a similar situation this week, where Spagnuolo won’t sacrifice the integrity of his very effective defense for one player. Especially when a lot of their favored coverages should do a good job at taking away deep shots, running a lot of split field coverages (leaving a safety overtop on one half of the field), 2-man under, and cover-2. This gives them the versatility to always try and leave a deep safety over Hill, however, that’s easier said than done with the amount of motion pre-snap from Miami. Speaking more of the coverages and how well they are disguised, the way the Chiefs algin pre-snap when running man coverage makes it look more like zone than man at times. Finding a way to force a tell between man and zone may be crucial for attacking this defense.
One thing that should be driven home this week, is for Tua to rely less on no-look passes. With how long it takes for the defense to truly show what shell they’re in, it can be very easy to get fooled into thinking a window on the opposite side of the field is open only for it to be easily taken away in reality. This is a strength of Tua’s game, but I believe the defense is equipped to handle a strategy like that with consistency.
Data
The numbers show promise, this might be the 1st good defense Miami has played that has a weak rush defense. Ranked 31st in the league and running a primarily 4 down front provides a clear opportunity to establish the ground game which has been lacking in all of the big games this season. The run game in this offense is a crucial piece that puts it over the top, as it takes advantage of the way defenses are looking to take away this style of pass offense (As I’ve surely mentioned before.) A 4 down front makes it easier for an offense to seal the edge in the run game and should be attacked for this reason at the very least, not to mention edge runs keep the ball away from the best defensive player on their team in Chris Jones.
Another thing of note looking at the data, as well as the film, is how frequently the Chiefs blitz. They have the highest blitz percent in the league, pressure is something that this offense and Tua are typically very good at attacking as it specializes in throwing fast and between zones which is what the blitz tends to give up. The more I look at this matchup between offense and defense is clear to me that unless Tua gets baited by the shifting shells, or the offensive line implodes, the matchup favors the strengths of this Miami offense more than it does the Chiefs defense.
In Summary:
- Monitor usage of teams having a designated player to press Tyreek Hill
- Be cautious of the shifting coverage shells from the Chiefs and avoid no-looks
- The Chiefs defense is a much better pass defense than it is run defense and that is something that MUST be taken advantage of if this offense is to return to form
