The Giants game came and went very different than the Bills game. Miami got the lead early and never really had much of a threat to lose it. That isn’t to say the game went along perfectly, but a win nonetheless. While there are some takeaways to learn from the Giants game, there’s more to gain from reviewing the upcoming opponents (Carolina Panthers) previous games film.
Giants Learning
The Dolphins didn’t end up falling victim to a “trap game” they did however, show signs of succumbing to it. Taking a look at both of Tua’s interceptions it’s very clear, he has no belief they were ever going to lose the game. The first in the redzone, he tried to fit the ball into a window that was never open or going to open. There was no pressure, nor disguise just a “let’s see if I can do it” throw. This led to a tip-pick and took a potential 21 – 3 start to a 14 – 10 start, otherwise know as a now losable game. This was also somewhat noticeable on the second interception, which was on a play later in the game where Miami was running a standard mesh concept. Tua stayed with the base read, even though that read should give enough information to Tua that the spot WR at the top of the mesh was left uncovered. While this was the only interception cause running a mesh concept, it seemed this concept all day is one Tua struggled with. It stood out especially because on the year he’s ran that exact concept at a much higher level. My reason for mentioning all this isn’t to make this a personnel article, but to say this. If every game isn’t the super bowl for you, then you might not be ready for the super bowl when it does come. Who knows, maybe the Dolphins have turned the corner and this is the start of a new dynasty, but many players no matter how great sometimes only get one chance to play in that game. So, if there’s anything that I’d want to take away from the Giants game it’s this: EVERY game needs to be the most important game.
Reviewing the Panthers tape
Well, this is a very simple offense point blank period. I can sit here and speculate as to why, but that serves no purpose to anyone. What I can do is talk about how I would approach dealing with it to make a young QB uncomfortable. The first thing to note is that this Panthers offense LOVES hitches and curl routes, they desperately want to attack underneath. Very rarely is Bryce Young not throwing to his first read and if he is, there are undoubtably pocket shenanigans going on. It’s also very clear, that designated target is often times Adam Thielen. Outside of that they run a lot of standard two-man high-low concepts to create more space.
Now the question becomes “what do we do about it?” The short answer makes it seem so simple, make the easy things hard. Now the long answer. It’s more than fair to assume that Frank Reich’s goal will to get Bryce Young comfortable to start the game. He can take two approaches: the first being to maintain the status quo, continue running a vanilla offense, make it easy on his young QB and hope he finds his rhythm that’ll carry through the rest of the game OR he will acknowledge that Miami will score points and assume he needs to be aggressive early. From what I’ve seen thus far I’d expect the former, either way gameplan-wise, especially knowing we’re a two-high based zone defense, I’d expect to run a lot of cover-2. Within that there are two things I’d want to do to make Young uncomfortable: The first of which is adjusting the hook zones over the middle of the field to get less depth in their landmarks, this allows them to play the run more aggressively while also quickly taking away underneath reads that this offense likes to attack. From here’s I’d want the safeties to start closer to the line of scrimmage to discourage filling that void during play action attempt and have the outside corners get extra depth in their flat assignments. I think against this offense, that the typical “mid-read” defender which often times in a cover-2 acts as a third deep defender over the middle can actually be used as a free player to confuse a young QB and takeaway comforts like the aforementioned Adam Thielen. The second thing I would hope to see is weakside pressure on second and longs, for a QB taking his first read as often as he is it’s highly likely that he wont have a strong presence toward his blind-side. This can create a massive turnover opportunity for strip sacks and if done well have Young second guess how much time he thinks he has in the pocket. The awareness of both for a QB can lead to mistakes in play. The specific reason for the pressure on 2nd and long scenarios (with creating a turnover in mind) is simple, everyone in the world is aware of the possibility of pressure on 3rd downs. It’s a pressure down, 2nd down on the other hand does not carry that same expectation and thus it is more likely to catch the offense off-guard. There’s more that can be done in this vein, but the moral of the story is take this very standard offense and get their young QB uncomfortable.
Taking a look at the Data
When taking a look at the Panthers game film there was something that stood out as a potential area to expose their defense, they tend to run a 3-3-5 wide aligned defense, with a compressed front. This puts 5 DL and LBs across the line of scrimmage and creates primarily 1-on-1s on the interior. What this also does is put a lot of pressure on the MLB because he is now the only linebacker with any depth from the line of scrimmage. When looking at the data I found what I believed might be a weakness to be true. The edges to this defense are soft, while Carolina only allows 3.7 rushing yards per attempt up the middle they allow 5 and 9 yards to the left and right respectively. More specifically they allow the most yards per attempt on outside runs beyond the tackles. This happens to be where Miami already has the most success running the ball and is something that without much changes I would expect to be utilized by the Dolphins for big plays. For reference, 5 weeks into the season Miami averages and ABSURD 11.27 yards per attempt when attacking the edge.
